Canada’s Energy Futures 2021 Fact Sheet: Natural Gas Liquids
Canada’s Energy Futures 2021 Fact Sheet: Natural Gas Liquids [PDF 788 KB]
Data and Figures [EXCEL 10,138 KB]
Natural Gas Liquids (NGL) Production - Evolving Policies Scenario
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Description
Description: This chart shows the production of various natural gas liquids in Canada from 2010 to 2050 in the Evolving Policies Scenario. Ethane production increases only slightly over the projection from 236 Mb/d in 2010 to 246 Mb/d in 2050. Propane increases significantly from 146 Mb/d in 2010 to 267 Mb/d in 2050. Butane also increases, from 114 Mb/d in 2010 to 174 Mb/d in 2050. Pentanes Plus increases from 105 Mb/d in 2010 to 142 Mb/d by 2050. Condensate increases from only 40 Mb/d in 2010 to 445 Mb/d in 2050. Total NGL production is 640 Mb/d in 2010, and increases to 1 274 Mb/d in 2050 in the Evolving Policies Scenario and 1 967 Mb/d in 2050 in the Current Policies Scenario.
In the Evolving Policies Scenario, natural gas liquids (NGL) production rises over the next two decades and then declines to 2050, following natural gas production trends. Natural gas activity continues to focus on liquids-rich tight and shale gas areas. The Current Policies Scenario has higher natural gas and NGL production projections. Increasing NGL production means greater potential for growth in petrochemical production and NGL exports.
Ethane Potential - Evolving Policies Scenario
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Description
Description: This chart shows the potential production of ethane along with the projected actual production from gas processing and off gas plants. Production of ethane from both sources increases over the projection from 236 Mb/d in 2010 to 246 Mb/d in 2050. While the production remains relatively flat, the amount of ethane that is not recovered grows considerably. Ethane potential increases from 39 Mb/d in 2014 to 167 Mb/d in 2050.
Canadian Exports and Imports - Evolving Policies Scenario
| Evolving Policies Scenario | 2010 | 2020 | 2030 | 2040 | 2050 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Ethane, thousand b/d (Mb/d) Imports |
0 | 102 | 134 | 134 | 134 |
|
Propane, Mb/d Exports Imports |
81 6 |
160 19 |
195 24 |
216 24 |
188 24 |
|
Butane, Mb/d Exports Imports |
24 12 |
35 11 |
42 11 |
47 11 |
24 11 |
|
PP and Condensate, Mb/d Imports |
157 | 214 | 327 | 327 | 220 |
Supply versus Disposition - Evolving Policies Scenario*
Ethane Supply - Mb/d
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Description
Description: This chart shows the supply of ethane from various sources from 2010 to 2050. Ethane production from gas processing increases from 236 Mb/d in 2010 to 246 Mb/d in 2050. Imports of ethane into Alberta from the United States grow from 8 Mb/d in 2014 to 36 Mb/d in 2050 while imports of ethane into Ontario from the United States grow from 30 Mb/d in 2014 to 98 Mb/d in 2050. Total supply grows from 236 Mb/d in 2010 to 381 Mb/d in 2050.
Ethane Disposition - Mb/d
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Description
Description: This chart shows the disposition of ethane in Canada from 2010 to 2050. Alberta petrochemical demand grows over the projection from 198 Mb/d in 2010 to 270 Mb/d in 2050. Similarly, Ontario petrochemical demand grows from 0 Mb/d in 2010 to 98 Mb/d in 2050. Demand for ethane as a solvent in the oil sands remains relatively flat, from 12 Mb/d in 2010 to 13 Mb/d in 2050. Exports of ethane remain at 0 Mb/d throughout the projection.
Propane Supply - Mb/d
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Description
Description: This chart shows the supply of propane from various sources from 2010 to 2050. Propane production from gas processing grows from 146 Mb/d to 267 Mb/d in 2050. Production of propane from refineries falls from 31 Mb/d in 2010 to 17 Mb/d in 2050. Imports of propane grow from 6 Mb/d in 2010 to 24 Mb/d in 2050. Total supply grows from 182 Mb/d in 2010 to 307 Mb/d in 2050.
Propane Disposition - Mb/d
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Description
Description: This chart shows the disposition of propane in Canada from 2010 to 2050. Alberta petrochemical demand grows over the projection from 2 Mb/d in 2010 to 22 Mb/d in 2050. Ontario petrochemical demand falls from 17 Mb/d in 2010 to 5 Mb/d in 2050. Demand for propane as a solvent in the oil sands grows from 3 Mb/d in 2010 to 15 Mb/d in 2050. Other Alberta demand for propane grows from 30 Mb/d I 2010 to 58 Mb/d in 2050. Other Canadian demand falls from 53 Mb/d in 2010 to 19 Mb/d in 2050. Exports of propane from Alberta to the United States grow from 19 Mb/d in 2010 to 54 in 2020. Exports of propane from Ontario to the United States remain flat at 28 Mb/d in 2010 to 27 Mb/d in 2020. Exports from the rest of Canada to the United States grow from 34 Mb/d in 2010 to 40 Mb/d in 2020. Exports from B.C. to international were 22 Mb/d in 2019 and 39 Mb/d in 2020. Projected exports from all of Canada are 203 Mb/d in 2021 and 188 Mb/d in 2050. Total disposition grows from 185 Mb/d in 2010 to 307 Mb/d in 2050.
Butane Supply - Mb/d
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Description
Description: This chart shows the supply of butane from various sources from 2010 to 2050. Butane production from gas processing grows from 86 Mb/d to 155 Mb/d in 2050. Production of butane from refineries falls from 28 Mb/d in 2010 to 19 Mb/d in 2050. Imports of butane from the United States to Alberta fall from 12 Mb/d in 2010 to 11 Mb/d in 2050. Total supply grows from 126 Mb/d in 2010 to 185 Mb/d in 2050.
Butane Disposition - Mb/d
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Description
Description: This chart shows the disposition of butane in Canada from 2010 to 2050. Alberta petrochemical demand falls over the projection from 11 Mb/d in 2010 to 5 Mb/d in 2050. Ontario petrochemical demand falls from 22 Mb/d in 2010 to 11 Mb/d in 2050. Refinery demand grows from 67 Mb/d in 2010 to 86 Mb/d in 2050. Demand for butane as a solvent in the oil sands grows from 2 Mb/d in 2010 to 5 Mb/d in 2050. Alberta diluent demand for butane grows from 17 Mb/d in 2010 to 43 Mb/d in 2050. Other Canadian demand is around 10 Mb/d. Exports of butane from Alberta to the United States grow from 3 Mb/d in 2010 to 7 in 2020. Exports of butane from Ontario to the United States are 15 Mb/d in 2010 and 11 Mb/d in 2020. Exports from the rest of Canada to the United States grow from 5 Mb/d in 2010 to 17 Mb/d in 2020. Projected exports from all of Canada decline from 60 Mb/d in 2021 to 24 Mb/d in 2050. Total disposition grows from 153 Mb/d in 2010 to 185 Mb/d in 2050.
Pentanes Plus and Liquid Condensate Supply - Mb/d
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Description
Description: This chart shows the supply of pentanes plus and condensate from various sources from 2010 to 2050. Pentanes plus production from gas processing drops from 105 Mb/d to 93 Mb/d in 2050. Condensate production from gas wells grows from 40 Mb/d in 2010 to 445 in 2050. Production from Alberta refineries grows from 5 Mb/d in 2017 to 49 Mb/d in 2050. Imports into Canada grow from 157 Mb/d in 2010 to 220 Mb/d in 2050. Total supply grows from 301 Mb/d in 2010 to 807 Mb/d in 2050.
Pentanes Plus and Liquid Condensate - Mb/d
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Description
Description: This chart shows the disposition of Pentanes plus and condensate in Canada. Diluent demand for pentanes plus and condensate grows from 392 Mb/d in 2010 to 807 Mb/d in 2050. Net exports are zero.
*Historical supply-disposition imbalances could be due to the use of various data sources, demand or import estimation, rail imports and other imports
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