Canada’s Energy Future 2019

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Canada’s Energy Future 2019: Energy Supply and Demand Projections to 2040 (EF2019) is the first long-term energy outlook from the Canada Energy Regulator (CER). The Energy Futures series explores how possible energy futures might unfold for Canadians over the long term. Energy Futures uses economic and energy models to make these projections. They are based on assumptions about future trends in technology, energy and climate policies, energy markets, human behaviour and the structure of the economy.

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Introduction

This first Energy Futures report from the Canada Energy Regulator includes an update to the baseline Reference Case projection and a new look and feel. Like many activities of the CER, it builds on the 60 year history of the National Energy Board. The National Energy Board began releasing long-term projections in 1967.

Executive Summary

EF2019 provides an update to the baseline projection in the Energy Futures series, the Reference Case. The Reference Case is based on a current economic outlook, a moderate view of energy prices and technological improvements, and climate and energy policies announced and sufficiently detailed for modeling at the time of analysis.

Assumptions

The outlook makes a variety of assumptions about future trends that are necessary to make long-term projections. These are factors such as included climate policies and regulations, rate of technological change, crude oil and natural gas markets (both domestic and global), infrastructure, major electricity projects and future costs of new generation capacity.

Results

This section presents results of the EF2019 Reference Case projection. It includes analysis on macroeconomic growth, energy use, and energy production for various sources. This projection should not be viewed as a prediction, but as a possible future based on the assumptions described in the Assumptions section.

Access and Explore Energy Futures Data

Energy Futures data is accessible in many different platforms including interactive data tables, machine readable files on OpenGov, and as part of online learning tools.

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About the CER

The Canada Energy Regulator is Canada’s independent national energy regulator. The CER is also charged with ensuring Canadians have access to and use energy information for knowledge, research and decision making.

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