Letter from the Chairperson: Update on Timing and Approach - Canada's Energy Future report

5 April 2022

The Honourable Jonathan Wilkinson, P.C., M.P.
Minister of Natural Resources
580 Booth Street
21st Floor, room C7-1
Ottawa, ON  K1A 0E4

Dear Minister:

On behalf of the Board of Directors of the Canada Energy Regulator (CER), I am writing to update you on the timing and approach for the next iteration of the Canada’s Energy Future report.

The Board of Directors has approved the CER’s plan to develop the report for release in the spring of 2023, rather than late fall 2022. This will allow delivery of the most credible and informative report possible, and ensure time for appropriate engagement and collaboration with modelling experts and other government departments on the approach.  

On approach, in your letter of 16 December 2021 [PDF 275 KB], you requested that the CER undertake scenario analysis consistent with Canada achieving net-zero emissions by 2050, specifying that this analysis:

  • include fully modelled scenarios of supply and demand of all energy commodities in Canada;
  • reflect a global context in which the world achieves its Paris Accord goal of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius; and
  • consider relevant uncertainties, including future trends in low-carbon technology and energy markets.

As I mentioned in my response to your letter, the CER is well positioned to undertake this task and welcomes this opportunity.

The CER’s approach for the next Energy Futures report will be to model scenarios that explore pathways to net-zero in Canada. Research and engagement done to date with energy modeling experts suggests that exploring uncertainty with multiple net-zero scenarios is critical to providing credible analysis in this space. In addition to these net-zero scenarios, the CER will generate a scenario based only on existing measures, both in Canada and globally. This scenario will provide a point of reference to compare against the net-zero scenarios.

In addition, the CER will ensure this work benefits from the perspectives of a wide range of stakeholders and Indigenous people throughbroad and meaningful engagement efforts. We also continue to collaborate with our federal counterparts including Natural Resources Canada and Environment and Climate Change Canada.

We appreciate that this work is important to informing the dialogue on the pathways to net-zero by 2050, and we look forward to continuing to provide energy information that contributes to the ongoing dialogue about future energy use and climate policy in Canada.

Yours sincerely,

Original signed by

Cassie J. Doyle

c.c.:

The Honourable Steven Guilbeault, P.C., M.P., Minister of Environment and Climate Change

Gitane De Silva, CEO, Canada Energy Regulator

Laurel Sherret, Chief of Staff, Canada Energy Regulator

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